A method is proposed for exchanging information that allows a ground system to estimate the aircraft intent response to a ground instruction. This method approximates the intent response as a linear function of ground instruction parameters. The approach is described and applied to the case of an aircraft in climb subject to a controlled time-of-arrival. When subject to either lateral maneuvers or altitude constraints, the provision of the aircraft intent response allows for significant improvements in prediction accuracy. Over a 150 nautical mile look-ahead horizon, accuracy is improved between 34% to 81% in the lateral maneuver case and 71% to 93% in the altitude maneuver case. Improved knowledge of the expected intent response allows ground systems to develop more accurate trajectories for application to tactical functions such as separation and trajectory management in higher density environments.
Theme: Trajectory and Queue Management
Keywords: accuracy, aircraft intent, trajectory, trajectory-based operations